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On Thursday, the Marlins and Reds will open a four-game series in Cincinnati. The club will meet for the first time in the 2021 season. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series with a prediction and selection for the Marlins against the Reds.
While the Marlins are out of postseason contention, the Reds are just two games out of the second wild card position in the National League. This next series against a mediocre Marlins club may make or break the Reds’ playoff hopes, particularly with the Padres falling out of the wild card race as well.
Both clubs recently faced the struggling Cubs, and the outcomes were polar opposites of what you would anticipate. The Reds dropped two of three games against the Cubs, while the Marlins swept Chicago with their brooms. The Marlins’ strong performance, however, was short-lived, as they were eventually swept by the Braves.
The odds for Sunday’s game between the Marlins and the Reds are as follows.
MLB Betting Odds: Marlins vs. Reds
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+185 Miami Marlins
-225 for the Cincinnati Reds
a total of eight runs (-115)
less than eight runs (-105)
Why the Reds Have a Chance to Win
The Reds are the superior club in this series on paper, and they are driven by their power-hungry attack. This season, Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, and Nick Castellanos have all hit more than 20 home runs for the Reds. This game is also being played at Great American Ballpark, which is known for being a hitter-friendly venue. The Reds need a series against a weak opponent like the Marlins to move up in the standings, and they’ll have a fantastic opportunity to accomplish so with Luis Castillo on the mound in the series opener. Castillo’s ERA for the season is a dismal 4.51, but that’s partly due to a handful of really awful performances in which he allowed eight runs in a game on several occasions. Castillo had a 2.15 ERA in six starts in July, showing that he has the potential to be a dominating pitcher. He pitched well against the Phillies in his most recent start, striking out eight hitters. This lineup has enough power in it to put up more than enough runs if Castillo can put together another start of at least six innings and three or less earned runs. In tonight’s game, I anticipate one of Votto, Suarez, or Castellanos to hit a home run. This victory is critical for the Reds to recover their momentum.
Why the Marlins Have a Chance to Win
Zach Thompson has been one of the Marlins’ top pitchers all season with 11 starts for the Marlins in 2021. Since making his MLB debut for the Fish in early June, he has 48 strikeouts and a 2.91 ERA. Thompson has allowed two or less earned runs in all but three of his outings this season. Despite the fact that the stadium favors hitters, Thompson has shown tremendous composure as a rookie and should have no trouble minimizing damage, especially against this Reds lineup.
At the bat, Jesus Aguilar continues to lead the National League in RBIs, which is remarkable given how ineffective the rest of the Marlins’ lineup has been. Aguilar has a.321 batting average with four home runs in 59 plate appearances at Great American Ballpark. In a tiny stadium, I believe Aguilar can increase his total and smash another long ball to help Zach Thompson today. The Marlins aren’t in contention for the postseason at this time, but recovering from an abysmal Braves series and winning the first game of the series would be a nice way to damage the Reds’ playoff hopes.
Final Reds-Marlins Prediction & Pick
I believe Zach Thompson has the pitching advantage here, and I expect him to maintain his season ERA under 3.00 with another strong performance tonight. I envision the Marlins winning this game because to Thompson’s strong start and Aguilar’s huge day at the bat, with Castillo having another poor start. The Marlins beat the Reds 7-3, extending their losing skid.
FINAL PICK: MONEYLINE +185 for the Marlins
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